Causes of the Cold War

"Conflicting views about the treatment of Germany were a major cause of the Cold War." To what extent do you agree with this statement? (May 2012)



The cartoon was published in the Manchester Daily Dispatch on 18 March 1946, and was drawn by the British cartoonist George Butterworth.  It was inspired by Churchill's Fulton speech (5 March 1946) and reflects a counter-argument to that of the question regarding the causes of the Cold War.  It does however, provide useful support for the assertion that the Cold War was 'established' by March 1946.

In this essay, you are expected to support the assertion in the question, but the command term "to what extent" is of vital importance because this signals that you are expected to prove your conclusion against alternative hypotheses.  The question should not be treated as a simple analysis of the causes of the Cold War.  Instead, it should assess the differing views as to the importance of Germany.

The views of the US 

The US had a desire to rebuild the German economy and reunite Germany as a nation and this was demonstrated by the disagreement over reparations at Potsdam; the Byrnes speech in 1946 which supported a rebuilt German economy; Marshall Plan aid and currency changes in 1948. In addition, the decision to unify the three western zones into Bizonia and then Trizonia was a clear statement that the US wanted a strong and economically powerful Germany to assist US trade and to act as a bulwark against communism. The decision to create the Federal German Republic and to rearm Germany after 1951, and to allow them to join NATO in 1955, were all indicative of American support for German rebuilding and the lack of fear of a strong Germany. These actions caused fear and apprehension in the USSR, which felt that Germany might be used to launch an attack on the Soviet territories in Eastern Europe or the USSR itself. Such actions were also seen as an indication of possible US imperial motives in Europe. 

The views of the USSR 

The USSR demanded huge reparations both to weaken the German economy and help Soviet post-war recovery. The USSR did not wish to encourage German development and refused Marshall Aid for East Germany. It was clear that the USSR wanted Germany to remain poor and neutral to prevent another attack and, perhaps, to create conditions for a possible Communist takeover. These actions increased Western fears of further Soviet expansion in Europe. The Berlin blockade was seen as an example of Soviet aggression and hardened Western attitudes toward the USSR, leading to the formation of NATO and the further division of Europe into rival blocs. 

Paper 1: The Emergence of the PLO

What impact did the emergence of the PLO have on the Middle East?

In 2009 Al Jazeera created a six-part series looking at the rise of the PLO and their role in the Arab-Israeli conflict.  The links below take you to the relevant episodes:

Episode 1  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGC_hHii1jo
Episode 2  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DShud_iyX9s&feature=relmfu
Episode 3  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gnLavGvlooo&feature=fvwrel
Episode 4  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YRv2E2uJIEs
Episode 5  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=567MZP5v5k8&feature=fvwrel
Episode 6  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yYDscGiSFKI&feature=relmfu

In considering this question, I would recommend the following steps:

1. Compile a brief chronolgy of the birth and development of the PLO
2. Consider the range of tactics which they have employed
3. Assess how much impact the movement has had
4. How much negative publicity have the PLO gained for the Palestinian cause?
5. What was the impact the UN Resolutions 3236 and 3237? (these granted the PLO observer status at the UN and recognised the right of the Palestinians to self-determination

Paper 1: The role of the Superpowers (1948-1979)

Superpower Involvement in the Middle East

A Les Gibbard cartoon from the Guardian which shows USA (Nixon) and USSR (Brezhnev) supporting the rival sides in the Middle East conflict

Question: Suggest examples to support the view that the superpowers 'played a significant role in driving and sustaining the conflict' (Gelvin, 2005)

To address this question you need to consider the way that the USA and USSR forged alliances with Middle eastern countries and how they used their economic and military strength to influence the region.  An interesting line of argument would be to take issue with the assertion in the title and to consider the way in which the USA in particular tried to create an atmosphere of constructive dialogue in the period 1973-1979.  

This question requires a good overview of the period as a whole, and an awareness of US/Soviet actions at key points.  For example:

1948/9 Establishment of Israel and 1948-9 war

1956 Suez Crisis (think about all the Illingworth cartoons of Khrushchev's support for Nasser)

1967 Six Day War (Soviet escalation of tensions on the eve of the war)

Post 1973 Peace negotiations (Kissinger's 'Shuttle Diplomacy') 

The Effects of the Vietnam War

What were the effects of the Vietnam War on the combatants and on the region?

On United States

• $150 billion cost of war (estimated)

• 58,000 lives

• Troops were younger on average by 7 years compared to WWII

• Some were made to feel the guilt for the nation’s moral transgressions; others, responsibility for its failure.  Some blamed timid civilian leaders that had prevented the military from winning the war

• Many veterans experienced problems with drugs, alcohol, joblessness, broken homes, and post-traumatic stress disorder

• The war made Americans more sceptical and cautious. (The
Vietnam Syndrome)

• POW/MIA

• 2,000 are still listed as POW/MIA.  

• By the mid-1980s, Vietnam (who had 300,000 MIAs of their own), went out of their way to help the U.S. recover the bodies because a poll in 1993 revealed that 57% of Americans believed that service personnel were alive and being held captive in Vietnam

• Lessons Learned

• The difficulties of intervening in a foreign civil war

• The pitfalls of incrementalism

• The perils of underestimating an enemy

• The limits of public tolerance for questionable uses of military power abroad

• Uncensored press can cause problems in a war

On Vietnam

• Environmental
• 20 million gallons of herbicides and defoliants, including Agent Orange, were sprayed on 14% of S. Vietnam
• 1 million Vietnamese, including as many as 150,000 children suffer from birth defects, miscarriages, and various illnesses possibly attributable to the chemicals
• 3.5 million land mines still litter the countryside and causes many deaths and casualties each year
• Three times as many bombs were dropped on Vietnam as were in WWI
• Economic

• A U.S embargo was put on Vietnam.  In the post-war years, per capita income averaged around $100; by the end of the century it was $376
• In the mid-1980s, a program of doi moi, or renovation, was implemented.  It had some success, as Vietnam became the second largest exporter of rice.  In the program, the regime hoped to:
• In 1994, Clinton lifted the embargo on Vietnam.  30 companies opened offices the day after the embargo was lifted.  Nike became Vietnam’s largest foreign employer
• Full normalization came in 1995 – the Vietnamese (in a symbolic act) returned the crumbling embassy in Ho Chi Minh City
• Social

• South Vietnamese who remained endured poverty, oppression, and forced labor.  Many non-communists were killed
• 400,000 suffered the horror of “reeducation” camps, some for as long as 10 years
• 1.5 million “boat people” fled the country after 1975, with 1 million resettling in the U.S.
• The Viet Cong was merged with the North Vietnamese Army in a way that its separate identity was destroyed
• In response to suppressing cross-border raids and to preserve a “friendly” government next door, Vietnam waged war with Cambodia for a decade, beginning in 1978.  This action led to Vietnam’s diplomatic isolation with all countries except the Soviet Union (both signed a treaty in 1978)

On Cambodia

• The Khmer Rouge (a communist guerilla force) took over the capital, Phnom Penh on 17/4/75
• Thousands of lives were lost
• Two million were refugees
• The country faced starvation
• Khmer Rouge imposed a gruesome totalitarianism and began the forced relocation of much of the        population
• Leader Pol Pot killed millions in a genocide

Laos

• The Pathet Lao (a communist guerilla force) took over, making no effort to hide its subservience to Vietnam. They had been given supplies during the war from the North Vietnamese
• America’s loyal allies, the Hmong, were the victims of Pathet Lao genocide 3.    100,000 escaped, but another 100,000 were killed in the genocide